Severe Weather Outlook - Days 4-8


Days 4 - 8 Day 4 Day 5 Day 6 Day 7 Day 8
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D4 Tuesday, May 21, 2024 - Wednesday, May 22, 2024 D7 Friday, May 24, 2024 - Saturday, May 25, 2024
D5 Wednesday, May 22, 2024 - Thursday, May 23, 2024 D8 Saturday, May 25, 2024 - Sunday, May 26, 2024
D6 Thursday, May 23, 2024 - Friday, May 24, 2024 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)

Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
 
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
 
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).