Severe Weather Outlook - Days 4-8


Days 4 - 8 Day 4 Day 5 Day 6 Day 7 Day 8
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D4 Saturday, September 12, 2026 - Sunday, September 13, 2026 D7 Tuesday, September 15, 2026 - Wednesday, September 16, 2026
D5 Sunday, September 13, 2026 - Monday, September 14, 2026 D8 Wednesday, September 16, 2026 - Thursday, September 17, 2026
D6 Monday, September 14, 2026 - Tuesday, September 15, 2026 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)

Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
 
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
 
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).