Severe Weather Outlook - Days 4-8



Days 4 - 8 Day 4 Day 5 Day 6 Day 7 Day 8
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D4 Tuesday, December 18, 2018 - Wednesday, December 19, 2018 D7 Friday, December 21, 2018 - Saturday, December 22, 2018
D5 Wednesday, December 19, 2018 - Thursday, December 20, 2018 D8 Saturday, December 22, 2018 - Sunday, December 23, 2018
D6 Thursday, December 20, 2018 - Friday, December 21, 2018 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)

Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
 
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
 
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).